On Iran’s Unrest, Its Reengagement With the World

Iran is facing nationwide protests driven by post-war economic collapse, marking its largest unrest since 2022—when Mahsa Amini’s death (a 22-year-old Kurdish woman who died after detention by Iran’s Morality Police over hijab rules) ignited the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement against morality policing and compulsory hijab laws.

Background- Trigger and Spread of Protests

• Economic Trigger: The protests began on December 28 as a strike by shopkeepers against the sharp decline in the value of the Iranian rial.
• Government’s Dual Response: While the government promised to address economic grievances, it simultaneously warned of harsh action against rioters.
• Casualties and Escalation: At least 12 people were killed in a week, and protests continued to spread across regions.
  

Political Context- Post-War Vulnerability of the Regime

• Aftermath of Iran–Israel War: The unrest comes six months after Iran survived a fierce 12-day war with Israel, increasing political fragility.
• Fear of Foreign Interference: Mossad (Israel’s spy agency) claimed its operatives were “in the field” with protesters, intensifying regime paranoia.
• U.S. Strategic Threats: U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that America was “locked and loaded” to use force if protesters were killed.
• External Pressure Complicating Stability: Foreign threats deepen internal insecurity and justify harsher crackdowns by the regime.
  

Reason For the Protest

• Extreme Food Inflation: Food inflation touched 64% in October, second only to South Sudan globally.
• Collapse of National Currency: The rial has lost 60% of its value since the June war.
• The “Rentier State” Problem: Iran relies heavily on natural resources, but oil exports dropped by 7% in 2025 compared to 2024.
  • A rentier state is a country that earns a large share of its national income from external rents (like oil, gas, minerals, and strategic rents) rather than from taxing its own citizens’ productive activities.
• Energy Shortages: Power outages have become a daily occurrence, affecting households and businesses.
• Shrinking Economic Opportunities: Long-term decline in livelihoods has eroded public confidence in the state.
• Erosion of Political and Personal Freedoms: Reduced civic space has accumulated public resentment.
• Political Structure: Iran has a theocratic Government (where religious authority dominates political power), where the power is split between an elected President and the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei), with the latter holding the ultimate authority
• Declining Effect of Ideological Legitimacy: Religion and nationalism may no longer compensate for economic suffering.
• External Blame as the Default Strategy: The regime repeatedly blames foreign forces for crises, ignoring domestic failures.
  

Role of External Actors In Aggravating the Crisis

• Impact of U.S. Sanctions Policy: The U.S. economic squeeze is worsening hardship for ordinary Iranians.
• Militarised Threat Posture: Threats of military action increase regime defensiveness and authoritarian responses.
• Missed Opportunity for Engagement: Instead of threats, empowering reformist leadership could help resolve tensions.
  

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Way Forward

• Political and Economic Reforms: Iran’s leadership must address governance failures rather than rely on repression.
• Tackle Corruption: Structural corruption must be addressed to restore public trust.
• Re-engage with the Global Community: Diplomatic and economic reintegration is essential for recovery.
• Address Root Causes of Public Anger: Sustainable stability requires restoring opportunity, dignity, and freedoms

Conclusion

Lasting stability in Iran cannot be achieved through repression or external threats but only through genuine economic reforms, political openness, and global re-engagement.