University of Maryland mathematicians used data from 172 ocean buoys to train an AI program to identify wave patterns that precede rogue waves up to five minutes in advance.
Rogue Waves
Rogue Waves are unusually large and unpredictable surface waves that can be extremely dangerous to ships and isolated structures such as lighthouses.
Sea State in Oceanography:
- Sea State Definition: Refers to the condition of the surface of a large body of water at a specific location and time.
- WMO Sea State Code: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) sea state code characterises sea state based on wave height on a scale of 0 (no waves) to 9 (waves over 14 m).
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- They are also known as freak waves, monster waves, episodic waves, killer waves, extreme waves, and abnormal waves.
- Unlike tsunamis, which are caused by events like earthquakes and are barely noticeable in deep waters; rogue waves are sudden massive ocean waves.
- Most reports of extreme storm waves look like “walls of water.” They are often steep-sided with unusually deep troughs.
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- Characteristics of a Rogue Waves:
- Defy Average Sea State: Rogue waves are twice the size of surrounding waves.
Formation: According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
- Swells Converge: Swells occur due to distant weather systems and not local winds. These Swells converge to raise a single, amplified wave.
- Ocean Currents: They may also form when ocean currents compress swells to create strong billows.
- Constructive Interference: Rogue waves form due to a phenomenon known as constructive interference that occurs when two or more waves meet and their crests (the highest point of a wave) align, causing the wave height to increase. This can happen with waves generated by different sources, such as wind and currents, or with waves travelling over a long distance and wavelengths becoming similar.
- Encountering an Obstacle: Rogue waves can also form when a large wave encounters an obstacle, such as a reef or rising seabed, and the wave’s energy is reflected back onto itself, causing the wave height to increase and creating a large, steep wave that can be difficult for a ship to handle.
- Predictability: Rogue waves are not entirely unpredictable.
- Real-Time Forecasting: The absence of real-time forecasting methods has led to deadly consequences.
- Between 2011 and 2018, rogue waves caused the deaths of at least 386 people and sank 24 ships, according to the “Catalogue of Rogue Waves Occurred in the World Ocean from 2011 to 2018″ (2020).
AI Training Methodology and Predictive Capabilities for Rogue Waves
- Distinguish between Normal and Rogue Waves: The Scientists trained their AI using 20-minute recordings from ocean buoys.
- They used recordings that ended when a rogue wave happened and compared these with recordings where no rogue waves occurred.
- This helped the AI learn to distinguish between normal waves and rogue waves.
- AI Prediction: This programme was subsequently able to predict about 75% rogue waves one minute in advance. Roughly 73% rogue waves could be predicted five minutes in advance
- Implication: The researchers showed that the tool could predict rogue waves near buoys at different depths not used in training, suggesting it may have universal predictive capabilities.
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Potential Improvements for AI Forecasts
- Enhancing Accuracy: Adding data on water depths, wind speeds, and buoy locations could improve forecast accuracy and advance warning times.
- Using more advanced Artificial intelligence (AI) architectures and additional data might lead to near-perfect predictions.
July 23, 2024
