UNEP’s Limiting Overshoot Report: Managing Global Warming Beyond 1.5°C

Subject: GS 3: Environment 

Context: The UNEP’s Limiting Overshoot report warns that global temperatures are likely to temporarily exceed 1.5°C, and proposes an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway to bring temperatures back below the threshold by 2100. 

• Its diplomatic basis was established at COP30, Belém, through the “Global Mutirão” decision.

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Key Highlights of the Report

• Unavoidable Threshold Breach: Current global policies put the world on track for a 2.6°C temperature rise by 2100. 
  • Even if every nation fulfills its existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero targets, peak warming will still hit 1.8°C.
• The “Overshoot, Peak and Decline” Strategy: Designed as a policy roadmap, this model focuses on keeping the peak temperature as low as possible and minimizing the duration spent above 1.5°C before actively pulling temperatures back down using carbon removal interventions.
• Compounding Costs of Delay: Every 5 additional years of continued high emissions adds approximately 0.1°C to peak warming. Removing that same 0.1°C later requires extracting roughly 220 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere.
• Mandatory Carbon Removal: Emission cuts alone are no longer sufficient. The framework requires scaling up nature-based carbon removal (such as large-scale reforestation) alongside direct technological removal to complement deep emission reductions.
• Targeting Methane for Immediate Cooling: Methane contributes approximately 0.5°C to current global warming. 
  • Cutting 60–70 million tonnes of anthropogenic methane emissions from agriculture and waste management by 2050 provides a cooling benefit equal to pulling 220 billion tonnes of CO2 out of the atmosphere.

Implications of Crossing the 1.5°C Threshold for India

• Vulnerability to Climate Extremes: India faces acute risks from melting Himalayan glaciers, intense heatwaves, erratic monsoons, and a projected 14% drop in agricultural yield by 2050 if adaptation measures are insufficient.
• Methane Diplomacy Pressures: Over 155 countries have signed the Global Methane Pledge to cut emissions by 30% by 2030. 
  • India remains outside this pledge due to concerns over protecting smallholder farmers, as the majority of domestic methane stems from livestock and paddy cultivation.
• Escalating Adaptation Needs: As global temperatures cross the target threshold, India will require substantial increases in climate-resilient infrastructure funding and enhanced disaster risk reduction programs.

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Key Challenges

• Irreversible Ecological Tipping Points: Exceeding 1.5°C even temporarily creates severe risks of permanent loss, including coral reef collapse, accelerated glacier retreat, and irreversible sea-level rise.
• Geopolitical Volatility: Major historical emitters stepping back from international climate treaties (such as the US exiting the Paris Agreement, UNFCCC, and the Green Climate Fund) alongside West Asian energy supply shocks risk driving nations back to short-term coal reliance.
• Uncertain Scale of Carbon Removals: Relying heavily on future carbon dioxide removal creates a moral hazard. Current carbon removal capacity remains limited and cannot reliably bring temperatures down if peak warming significantly exceeds 2°C.

Way Forward

• Prioritize Immediate Deep Mitigation: Treat overshoot management strictly as an emergency measure, preventing it from being used as a justification to delay the transition away from fossil fuels.
• Deploy Agri-Waste Methane Solutions: India can implement low-cost domestic solutions—such as alternate wetting and drying in rice fields, improved livestock nutrition, and biogas generation from agricultural waste—to curb methane without sacrificing food security.
• Mobilize Global Climate Finance: Ensure developing countries obtain direct access to the Loss and Damage Fund along with dedicated grants for climate adaptation.
• Multilateral Leadership: Utilize platforms like the G20 and BRICS to enforce technology sharing for carbon removal and maintain international consensus despite geopolitical divisions.

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Conclusion

UNEP’s report provides an undeniable reality check for global climate planning. While an overshoot period is now virtually inevitable, preventing long-term ecological collapse depends on translating civilizational goodwill into immediate methane reductions, rapid renewable energy scaling, and strong climate adaptation frameworks.

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