The Turkish Challenge for New Delhi

Turkey has openly supported Pakistan during the recent India-Pakistan crisis, deepening their strategic and military ties. This stance contrasts with Turkey’s growing trade relations with India and highlights regional geopolitical complexities.

Turkey’s Open Support for Pakistan

• Turkey’s Explicit Support for Pakistan: Turkey’s stance during the India-Pakistan crisis after the Pahalgam terror attacks was explicit and supportive of Pakistan, unlike China’s subtle approach.
• Turkey-Pakistan Ties Despite India Trade: Despite growing trade ties with India, Turkey under Erdogan (Turkey’s President) has strengthened ties with Pakistan, especially on the Kashmir issue.
• Erdogan’s Public Solidarity: Erdogan has publicly declared solidarity with Kashmiri Muslims and used platforms like the UNGA to raise this issue.

Shifts in Diplomatic Messaging

• Shift in UNGA Speeches: Turkey’s 2023 UNGA speech called for peace via dialogue, but his 2024 address dropped this emphasis, influenced by Turkey’s ambitions to join BRICS.

Growing Defence Partnership

• 2025 Strategic Partnership: The 2025 strategic partnership declaration between Turkey and Pakistan formalizes military collaboration, including joint projects and exercises.
• Military Supplier Role: Turkey is Pakistan’s second-largest arms supplier after China, providing stealth corvettes, F-16 jets, armed drones, and missiles.
• Support During Operation Sindoor: Turkish military support was evident during Operation Sindoor, with Pakistani use of Turkish drones neutralized by Indian defense.

Diplomatic and Military Support in Crisis

• Erdogan’s Post-Pahalgam Statements: Post-Pahalgam, Erdogan called Pakistan’s PM supporting Pakistan’s “calm and restrained policies” and accused India of risking an “all-out war.”
• Military Logistics Support: Turkish military logistics, including C-130 planes and naval vessels, were active in Pakistan during heightened tensions.

India’s Strategic Response

• India’s Policy Reassessment: India is reassessing its policy towards Turkey, strengthening ties with Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and joining platforms like I2U2 and IMEC to counter Turkey’s influence.
• Countering Turkish Expansionism: India aims to challenge Turkish expansionism and assert its presence in the Middle East and wider Islamic world.

Erdogan’s Political and Religious Positioning

• Turkey’s Islamic Leadership Ambitions: Erdogan seeks to position Turkey as a leader of the Islamic world, challenging Saudi Arabia’s traditional role.
• Promotion of Islamic Values: He promotes Islamic values domestically and takes vocal stands on issues like Palestinian rights and Rohingya persecution.

Outlook and Challenges for India

• Unlikely Policy Change Against India: Turkish policies against India are unlikely to change, and the Turkey-Pakistan partnership is expected to strengthen.
• India’s Humanitarian Efforts Rejected: India’s humanitarian gestures, like aid after the 2023 Turkey earthquake, have not softened Ankara’s stance.
• Strategic Challenge to India: The growing Turkey-Pakistan entanglement poses a serious strategic challenge for India.

Conclusion

Turkey’s alliance with Pakistan is set to strengthen, posing a significant challenge to India’s security and diplomatic interests. Despite India’s efforts, Turkey’s ideological and strategic priorities suggest little change in its stance toward India.