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Introduction

The death sentence recently awarded o ex-PM Sheikh Hasina, tried in absentia amid Bangladesh’s political turmoil, highlights the fragility of its democratic institutions and judicial process. This development places India at a diplomatic crossroads, requiring a nuanced approach to protect regional stability and bilateral interests.

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Implications on India’s Diplomatic Stance

• Legal Justification to Refuse Extradition: India can invoke the 2013 India–Bangladesh Extradition Treaty, particularly the Political Offence Exception, to deny Sheikh Hasina’s extradition.
  Eg: Ensures India upholds due process concerns while avoiding direct confrontation with Bangladesh.
• Maintaining Neutrality Amid Political Turmoil: India must balance support for democracy without appearing to interfere in Bangladesh’s internal politics.
• Safeguarding Regional Stability: Diplomatic prudence is essential to prevent unrest in border regions with shared land and water links.
  Eg: Porous borders between India and Bangladesh could be destabilized if India openly opposes the verdict.
• Navigating Geopolitical Pressures: India must manage competing influences from China, Pakistan, and the US in Bangladesh.
  Eg: China’s strategic projects in Bangladesh and US election monitoring complicate India’s diplomatic calculations.
• Humanitarian and Democratic Signaling: Upholding the rule of law and human rights strengthens India’s image as a responsible regional actor, signaling commitment to democracy in South Asia.

Impact on India-Bangladesh Bilateral Relations

• Strained Political Engagement: Extradition requests and politically charged trials may limit high-level engagement.
• Trade and Economic Cooperation Risks: Political instability may affect bilateral trade, investments, and cross-border projects.
• Security and Border Management Challenges: Radical groups and unrest in Bangladesh could spill over into Indian border states.
  Eg: Porous land and riverine borders in West Bengal and Assam may require increased monitoring.
• People-to-People and Diaspora Concerns: Indian-hosted exiles and migrant communities may face political backlash from Bangladeshi authorities, may become a sensitive diplomatic issue.
• Influence on Regional Multilateral Cooperation: Bangladesh’s instability complicates collaboration in SAARC, BIMSTEC, and Indo-Pacific initiatives.

Conclusion

The verdict amplifies uncertainty in Bangladesh, affecting governance, security, and regional cooperation. India’s diplomatic stance must remain strategic yet cautious, leveraging dialogue, legal frameworks, and multilateral engagement to safeguard bilateral ties, promote stability, and ensure that political volatility does not compromise shared economic, cultural, and security interests.

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