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Introduction

Rising China–Japan tensions sparked by statements linking Japan’s security to a possible Chinese move on Taiwan have made Taiwan a central driver of Japan’s defence and diplomatic posture. Increasing Chinese military activity near Japan’s maritime zones has heightened Tokyo’s threat perception. These shifts also affect India’s Indo-Pacific strategy as it navigates ties with both Japan and China.

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How the Taiwan issue shapes Japan’s security 

• Heightened threat perception: Japan now views Taiwan’s security as directly linked to its own owing to Chinese claims over the Senkaku Islands and expanding PLA activities.
  Eg: Chinese missiles fell in Japan’s EEZ during 2022 Taiwan-related drills, sharpening Tokyo’s security concerns.
• Military modernisation push: Japan is accelerating defence spending and capacity-building to deter Chinese coercion near Taiwan and its own southwestern islands.
  Eg: Japan plans its largest military expansion in decades, raising defence spending to 2% of GDP.
• Expanded regional defence cooperation: Taiwan’s vulnerability pushes Japan to strengthen security ties with the U.S. and partners to ensure deterrence.
  Eg: Japan relies on the U.S. security alliance, which covers the defence of the Senkaku Islands.
  

How Taiwan shapes Japan’s foreign policy posture 

• Stronger diplomatic signalling: Japan increasingly speaks openly about peace in the Taiwan Strait, aligning its foreign policy narrative with regional stability concerns.
• Greater Indo-Pacific coalition-building: Japan amplifies partnerships like the Quad to counterbalance China’s assertiveness linked to Taiwan.
  Eg: Japan conducts regular military exercises and strategic dialogues with India under the Quad framework.
• Sharper diplomatic pushback against China: Tokyo more actively confronts China on security and territorial issues to protect its interests.
  Eg: Japan summoned China’s ambassador after threats aimed at its Prime Minister over Taiwan remarks.

Implications for India’s Indo-Pacific interests

• Stronger India–Japan strategic convergence: Heightened China–Japan tensions may deepen India–Japan defence cooperation.
• Impact on India–China normalisation efforts: A sharper Beijing–Tokyo rivalry complicates India’s attempts to stabilise ties with China.
  Eg: India’s recent efforts to improve China ties may be disrupted by rising regional tensions.
• Shifts in regional balance of power: Japan’s stronger deterrence posture influences Indo-Pacific security dynamics that directly affect India’s strategic calculations.
• Greater uncertainty due to U.S. “strategic ambiguity”: India must navigate unpredictability in the U.S. role on Taiwan and its effect on regional alignments.
  Eg: Trump’s unclear Taiwan policy and absence from the Quad meeting add strategic uncertainty.
• Operational challenges for trade and connectivity: Instability near Taiwan Strait one of India’s key shipping routes poses economic and security risks.
  Eg: Recent China–Japan tensions already disrupted markets, tourism, and air travel, signalling broader regional volatility.

Conclusion

The evolving Taiwan question has become the fulcrum of Japan’s security and diplomatic choices, pushing it toward greater military readiness and strategic coalitions. These shifts ripple across the Indo-Pacific, influencing India’s partnerships, regional balancing, and economic interests. Navigating this environment requires calibrated diplomacy that safeguards India’s autonomy while strengthening ties with like-minded partners.

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