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As per the latest ENSO update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States La Nina conditions is predicted by the end of 2024.

El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation): By NOAA

• The latest official probabilistic forecast issued by NOAA indicates a greater than 70 per cent chance of a La Nina event during September-November 2024 with the current El Nino phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean ending by April.
• The current forecasts indicate that La Nina can arrive during the second half of the southwest monsoon season. 

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• It is a recurring climate pattern which involves changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean every three to seven years.  
• The surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from 1°C to 3°C, compared to normal
• Impact: The ENSO cycle directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and have a strong influence on weather systems across the United States, India , Australia and other parts of the world.
• Phases: It has 3 phase with  El Niño and La Niña as the extremes and in between these two is a third phase called ENSO-neutral.
  • El Niño: It is warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean along the Peruvian Coast replacing the cold Humboldt current.
    • Impact: Rainfall decreases over Indonesia and the broader South Asia while it increases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
    • The low-level surface winds or the Easterlies weaken or  in some cases, changes their direction and start blowing in the other direction (from west to east). 
  • La Niña: La Nina means The Little Girl in Spanish. It is cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean along the Peruvian Coast strengthening the cold Humboldt current.
    • Impact: In a reverse from El-Nino, Indonesia and South Asia receives higher rainfall while it  decreases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  
    • The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger. 

Impact of La Nina on India 

• The latter part of the southwest monsoon season  may witness more than average rainfall for most of India.
• South west monsoon may extend  into October like in the past few years. 
• All India Mean Rainfall: It is speculated to remain in positive but states like Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar may again face a deficit.

• La Nina Event of 2021-2023

• • It had caused above normal and extended monsoon seasons.
  • Example: Monsoon season of 2022 ended up with an all India excess of six per cent and rains extending into October. 
  • The period also saw many extreme rainfall events and consequent floods, flash floods and landslides across many states of India, especially in the later part of the seasons. 

News Source: DTE

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The Indian Prime Minister while addressing a programme of 200th birth anniversary celebrations of Swami Dayananda Saraswati, urged people to convert the faith of Swami Dayanand Saraswati about India, into self-confidence during Amrit Kaal. 

About Swami Dayanand Saraswati 

• A Renowned Person: He was a philosopher, social leader, a profound Vedic scholar, metaphysician, reformer, and religious leader.
• Maker of Modern India: Sarvapalli Radhakrishnan, India’s second President called Dayanand Saraswati “a maker of modern India”. 
• Founder of Arya Samaj: He founded Arya Samaj, a reform movement of Vedic dharma. 
  • The first Arya Samaj unit was formally set up by him at Mumbai (then Bombay) in 1875 and later the headquarters were established at Lahore.
  • Through the Arya Samaj, he was among the first to advocate ‘conversion’ into the Hindu fold and supported the idea of shuddhi, to bring back Islamic or Christian converts into Hinduism. 
• Call for Swaraj: In 1876, he was the first to give the call for Swaraj as “India for Indian”, which would later be picked up by the likes of Lokmanya Tilak and Mahatma Gandhi. 
• Unity Believer: His vision included a classless and casteless society, a united India, and an India free from foreign rule, with Aryan religion being the common religion of all.
• Inspired With: He took inspiration from the Vedas and considered them to be “India’s Rock of Ages”, the infallible and the true original seed of Hinduism. 
• Work for Education: He introduced a complete overhaul of the education system and is often considered one of the visionaries of modern India.
  • The Dayanand Anglo Vedic (DAV) schools came into existence in 1886 to realize his vision.
  • The first DAV School was established at Lahore with Mahatma Hansraj as the headmaster.
• Literary Work: Satyarth Prakash (1875), emphasized the “return to Vedic principles”, Veda Bhasya Bhumika, an introduction to his Vedic commentary and Veda Bhashya, a Vedic commentary in Sanskrit on the Yajurveda and the major part of the Rig-Veda.
  • He gave the slogan “Back to the Vedas”.
• Followers: His followers included Sri Aurobindo and S. Radhakrishnan.
• Belief: Rejection of idolatry and the overly ritualistic traditions of Hinduism, support for women’s education, denunciation of child marriage and an opposition to untouchability.
• Philosophy: He preached respect and reverence for other human beings, supported by the Vedic notion of the divine nature of the individual. 
  • His “ten founding principles of Arya Samaj” is the idea that all activities must be done for the benefit of humankind as a whole, rather than individuals or even idols and religious symbols. He advocated Vedic education for all castes.

About Arya Samaj

• In 1875, Swami Dayananda created the Arya Samaj, a reformist Hindu organization focused on reviving Vedic values and promoting social and religious changes. Ten Principles: Swami Dayananda articulated the Arya Samaj’s ten principles:
  • Vedas as the Ultimate Source of Knowledge: The Vedas are revered as timeless scriptures containing universal wisdom and moral guidance.
  • Worship of the One Supreme Being: Arya Samaj promotes monotheism and the worship of the formless, all-pervading Supreme Being.
  • Universal Brotherhood: All individuals are considered equal, transcending distinctions of caste, creed, and gender.
  • Pursuit of Knowledge and Science: Education, rational thinking, and scientific inquiry are encouraged to develop an enlightened society.
  • Non-Acceptance of Falsehood: Truthfulness, integrity, and the rejection of superstitions and baseless rituals are emphasized.
  • Promotion of Social Welfare: Philanthropy, compassion, and service to society are actively promoted by Arya Samaj.
  • Preservation of Cultural Heritage: The study and preservation of ancient scriptures, rituals, and traditions are encouraged.
  • Protection of Women’s Dignity and Rights: Arya Samaj advocates for gender equality, education, and women’s empowerment.
  • Promotion of Ideal Family Life: Strong moral values, mutual respect, and nurturing family relationships are emphasised.
  • Continuous Progress and Reform: Adaptation to changing times while staying rooted in truth and righteousness is promoted.

News Source: All India Radio

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Protest sparks over a plan for a Railway line passing through Bandipur National Park to connect Nilambur in Kerala to Nanjangudi in Karnataka.

Save Bandipur Protest Held in Mysuru

• Golden IT Corridor: It is a 236 km broad-gauge railway line connecting Nilambur in Kerala to Nanjangudi in Karnataka with a 19.7-kilometre stretch traversing through the  Bandipur National Park. 
  • The project cost was initially approved by the Planning Commission in 2010 and was deemed technically feasible by Kerala government, envisioning a 70 km shortcut from Kerala to Bengaluru.
• Aim of the project: 
  • To improve interstate connectivity and reduce travel time and distance.
  • To  alleviate traffic congestion on National Highway-766, which connects Kozhikode in Kerala to Kollegal in Karnataka

Bandipur National Park

• Formation: The Bandipur National Park was formed by including the forest areas of the Venugopala Wildlife Park in 1985 extending over an area of 874.20 Sq.Km. This reserve was brought under Project Tiger in 1973.
• Location: It is situated in 2 revenue Districts in Karnataka ie. Chamarajanagar and Mysuru District.
  • The landmass is located at the tri-junction area of the States of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
  • It lies in the Western Ghats Mountains Biogeography Zone
• Part of the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve: It is surrounded by Mudumalai Tiger Reserve (Tamil Nadu) in the South, Wayanad Wildlife Sanctuary (kerala) in the South West & on the North West Side the Kabini Reservoir separates the Bandipur and Nagarahole Tiger Reserve (karnataka)
• Forest Type: The vegetation changes from Moyar scrub type to dry deciduous to  moist deciduous type from east to west.
• Rivers: The  Kabini river separates Bandipur from Nagarhole in the north.  Moyar river flows in the south. The Nugu river runs through the park
• Fauna: It is one of the  last refuges of the endangered Asiatic wild elephant. Other  endangered species such as sloth bears, gaurs, Indian rock pythons, jackals, muggers, and four-horned antelopes, rare flying lizard etc
• Flora: teak, rosewood, sandalwood, Indian-laurel, Indian Kino tree, giant clumping bamboo, etc.

News Source: DTE

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India’s Net Direct Tax Collection rises 20.25% YOY to Rs.15.60 lakh crore, reaches over 80% of FY24 Target.

Key Data On Direct Tax Collection: By Finance Ministry

• Overall Growth & Performance: 

  • Gross collections amount to Rs. 18.38 lakh crore, showing year-on-year growth of 17.30%. 
  • Net collections at Rs. 15.60 lakh crore, up 20.25% year-on-year. Represents 80.23% of revised target for FY 2023-24. 

• By Tax Type: 

  • Corporate Income Tax (CIT):
    • Gross growth rate is 9.16% year-on-year. Net growth rate is 13.57% year-on-year. Personal Income Tax (PIT): 
    • Gross collections up 25.67% (PIT only) / 25.93% (including STT) year-on-year. 
    • Net collections up 26.91% (PIT only) / 27.17% (including STT) year-on-year. 
• Refunds: Rs. 2.77 lakh crore issued in refunds between April 1st, 2023 and February 10th, 2024.

Government Initiatives to Improve Direct Taxes:

• Reduction in tax rates: 

  • Corporate Tax Rates were Reduced : from 30% to 25.17% (including surcharge and cess) for existing domestic companies.

• Promotion of Technology in Tax Department: 

  • Faceless E-assessment Scheme (2019) & Faceless Appeals(2020):  It removes direct interaction between taxpayers and assessing officers/ appellate authorities fostering transparency and reducing bias. 
  • Document Identification Number (DIN): (2019), a unique DIN is assigned to every communication related to tax matters, facilitating easy tracking and verification

• Reducing litigation by providing tax certainty: 

• • Advance Pricing Agreements (APAs): It allows taxpayers and tax authorities to pre-agree on how to price international transactions, minimizing future disputes and fostering certainty.
    •  FY 2022 saw a record 95 APAs signed, highlighting the program’s success in reducing litigation
  • Vivad se Vishwas Act, 2020: This initiative provides a window for settling pending direct tax disputes, offering reduced penalties and fees for timely resolution. 
    • By offering a streamlined process and reducing litigation costs, the Act promotes certainty and encourages dispute resolution.

Overall, the direct tax collection figures indicate robust growth revenue, with both Corporate & personal income tax contributing a steady increase. The Steady growth in tax collections reflects positively on the fiscal health of the country during the current fiscal year.

News Source: The Hindu

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India’s UPI payment services launched in Sri Lanka and Mauritius and RuPay card services in Mauritius.

About UPI Payment Services 

• UPI is  an instant real-time payment system to facilitate multiple bank accounts into a single mobile application (of any participating bank), merging several banking features, seamless fund routing & merchant payments into one hood. 
• Launched in : 2016
• By: National Payment Corporation of India(NPCI).
• UPI Achievement: 
• • UPI transactions have skyrocketed exceeding 10 billion and 
  • over 40% of Indian payments are now digital in which upi is leading the head.

About Rupay

• RuPay is a global card payment network from India, with wide acceptance at shops, ATMs, and online. 
• The name derived from the words ‘rupee’ and ‘payment’ emphasizes that it is India’s very own initiative for card payment. 
• Launched in : It is a financial services and payment services system launched in 2012 and dedicated to the country in 2014.
• By : National Payment Corporation of India(NPCI).

Significance of launch UPI Payment Services Launch in Sri Lanka and Mauritius 

• Enhance Cultural and people-to-people linkages with Sri Lanka and Mauritius.
• Strengthen Bilateral Financial & Digital Connectivity.
• It will enhance the development in the Global South.
• Enhance fintech innovation based on mutual benefit.
• Foster Faster and seamless digital transaction experience
• Benefits for Tourists visiting the countries.

News Source: AIR

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Reptiles going in the state of brumation to conserve its energy to survive harsh environmental conditions. 

What Is Brumation?

• It is a dormant period for reptiles. 
• This process is similar to hibernation in mammals. 
• The timing and duration of this process differ depending on the species, age, and gender of the reptile. Typically, males tend to awaken from their dormant state earlier than females.
• During this period, reptiles may
  • Reptiles slow down: Their bodies work less to save energy for winter.
  • Less food, more sleep: They don’t eat and defecate much (or at all!) for several weeks. 
    • They move around less and mostly stay in the darkest and coldest part of the place. 
    • They sometimes go outside to drink water to stay hydrated.  
  • Long nap: They’re not completely asleep, but they’re very still and quiet.
  • Survival technique: Brumation helps them survive the cold months when food might be scarce.

Why Do Reptiles Brumate?

• Incapability to control body Temperature: Reptiles take a long nap (brumate) during the cold season because they can’t control their body temperature.
• Endure Environmental conditions: They brumate so that they can avoid cold weather, and lack of food and water.

Hibernation Vs Brumation VS Aestivation

News Source TheHindu

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Recently, a study has been published in ‘Cell Stem Cell’ that researchers have created the first functional 3D printed brain tissue.

What Is 3D Bioprinting?

• A Computer-guided Process: 3D Bioprinting is a computer-guided process that builds layers of materials, cells, and other components to build living structures.

• Significance: It has huge potential for creating tissues that replicate, and in some cases even replace the real deal.

First Functional 3D Printed Brain Tissue

• A New Significant Tool for Scientists: It provides neuroscientists with a new tool for studying communication between brain cells and other parts of the human brain.
• Feature: It can develop and form connections in the same way as real human brain tissue.
• Usability: Many labs should be able to use it as it doesn’t need special bioprinting equipment. 
• Significance: 
  • To Treat Diseases: It leads to better ways of treating diseases like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.
  • Easy to Maintain: It is easy to keep healthy and can be studied with microscopes and other equipment typically found in most laboratories.
  • Understanding Complex Working: Now it is possible to print the tissue by design and neuroscientists can have a defined system to look at how the human brain network operates.
  • Concern: It is challenging to print functional human brain tissue and so far most 3D-printed tissues lack proper connections between cells. 
  • Neurons need to be able to mature while keeping the tissue structure intact, and supporting cells are essential for the tissue to function properly.
    • Neurons are the structural and functional unit of the nervous system. All neurons comprises three different parts- dendrites, cell body and axon.  

Conclusion

The precision of this 3D printing method allows control over cell types and arrangements, unlike miniature lab grown organs used for brain research called brain organoids. It can be used to look at the molecular mechanisms underlying brain development, human development, developmental disabilities, neurodegenerative disorders, and more. It will improve the process to create more specific brain tissues with guideable cells.

News Source: Science Alert

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Recently, the Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government of India launched “SWATI Portal – Science for Women-A Technology & Innovation (SWATI)”.

• The Swati Portal was launched on International Women and Girls in Science Day, which was celebrated on 11th February. 

About SWATI Portal

• Aim: To create a unified online platform for Indian women and girls in Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics, and Medicine (STEMM).
• Developed by: The National Institute of Plant Genome Research (NIPGR)

• Objectives Of SWATI Portal

• • Scale up efforts to include all Indian women in science, across career stages and subjects in academia and industry.
  • Enable long-term research on equality, diversity, and inclusivity in India through a reliable, statistically significant database.
  • Recognizes women as 50% of the vital human resource and advocates for their increased role in decision-making.
  • Emphasizes the importance of science education in enhancing awareness, fostering critical thinking, and addressing socio-economic challenges faced by women.

• Significance Of SWATI Portal

• • The SWATI Portal utilizes the database for informed policy-making and addressing gender gap challenges.

News Source: PIB

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This article is based on the news “PM SVANidhi boosted annual income of street vendors by Rs 23,000: Study” which was published in the Indian Express. A recent study on the impact of PM SVANidhi, commissioned by the Union Ministry of Housing Affairs, confirmed that PM SVANidhi boosted the annual income of street vendors by Rs 23000.

PM SVANidhi Scheme: Key Highlights

• Under PM SVANidhi
  • 60.65 lakh vendors – availed first term loan
  • 16.95 lakh vendors – availed second term loan
  • 2.43 lakh vendors – availed third term loan
• The study concluded that no significant improvement was seen in street vendors getting formal credit from other sources.
  • Only 9% of the beneficiaries had loans from other financial institutions.

Background Of PM SVANidhi Scheme

The livelihood of street vendors was adversely impacted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• The small capital base, on which they work was consumed during the lockdown.
• To help street vendors resume their livelihood, the scheme was launched.

What Is PM SVANidhi?

• PM Svanidhi is a special micro-credit scheme, launched by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs to provide financial assistance to street vendors.
• Aim: To empower street vendors by facilitating access to formal credit, enabling them to improve their business and livelihoods.
• Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan: The scheme was announced to provide economic stimulus under the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, implemented from 1st June 2020.

• Implementation Partners Of PM SVANidhi

• • SIDBI:  Along with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, the Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI) will be implementing the scheme.
  • Urban Local Bodies (ULBs): Helps beneficiaries by reaching them to connect under the scheme efficiently.

• Features Of PM SVANidhi

• • Central Sector Scheme: PM-SVANidhi is a central sector scheme.

• Collateral Free Loan: It’s a collateral-free loan of up to Rs 50,000 in incremental tranches for eligible street vendors
  • First tranche of Rs 10,000 
  • Second trench of Rs 20,000 subject to repayment of the first trench.
  • Third trench of Rs 50,000 after the repayment of the second trench.
• Breaking community barriers: It connected marginalized urban vendors, in which more than 75% of loans were given to non-general categories. 
• Interest subsidy: It offers an interest subsidy of 7% per annum on regular loan repayment.
• No penalty on early repayment: No penalty will be made on clearance of debt before the scheduled time.
• Financial Inclusion: The scheme helps in organizing the vendors in a formal financial system which not only helps in increasing digital transactions but also increasing transparency.

Beneficiaries Are Covered Under PM SVANidhi

• All the beneficiaries belonging to those States/UTs, notified under Rules and Street Vendors (Protection of Livelihood and Regulation of Street Vending) Act 2014, are eligible under the scheme.
• Even the vendors from Meghalaya, the state having its own state street vendors act, are eligible under the PM SVANidhi.

Significance Of PM SVANidhi Scheme

• Access to Formal Credit: The PM SVANidhi scheme provides street vendors with access to formal credit, which was not available to them earlier. This helps them to meet their working capital requirements and expand their businesses.
• Improved Business Performance: With access to credit, street vendors can invest in better equipment, inventory, and marketing, which can help them improve their business performance and income.
• Financial Inclusion: The PM SVANidhi scheme brings street vendors into the formal financial system, which can help them access other financial products and services in the future.
• Social Security: The PM SVANidhi scheme also provides street vendors access to social security schemes such as accident insurance and pension.

News Source: Indian Express and The Tribune

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This article is based on the news “Vivek Katju writes: With Pakistan poll results, Imran Khan vs General Asim Munir will continue” which was published in the Indian Express. Pakistan’s emerging election results have deepened the political crisis, with implications for civil-military relations, democracy, and the economy.

2024 Pakistan Election Results: Key Highlights

• 2024 Pakistan Election: It is a decisive moment, at a critical juncture determining Pakistan’s future trajectory.
• Unexpected Pakistan Election Results: Independents supported by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) secure significant seats, it dominated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial assembly and closely contested in Pakistan’s Punjab provincial assembly. 
• Coalition Government:  Pakistan’s elections returned with no party getting enough seats in the National Assembly to form a government by itself.
  • Pakistan Army chief General Asim Munir has backed Sharif’s call for a coalition government. According to reports, Sharif is in talks with Peoples Party of Pakistan (PPP), to form an alliance.
• Implications of Election Verdict: It may deepen the Political Crisis and these concerns extend to international relations with India and beyond.
  • Observers had argued that if Sharif returned to power, it would pave the way to some incremental improvements in India Pakistan relations, given his relative openness to working with India.
  • Khan’s return to power might be a mixed picture as his government had downgraded diplomatic ties with India after the 2019 abrogation of Article 370 that had granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir.
• Military’s Historical Influence: Traditionally, Pakistan’s military has wielded direct or indirect power. 
  • Imran Khan’s growing political autonomy and conflicts with the military led to a power struggle.

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India Pakistan Relations: Background

• India Pakistan Relations: Phase of Hostility (1947 – 2001)

  • Partition Fallout and Kashmir Conflict: The partition led to massive migrations and violence. The first India Pakistan war occurred over Kashmir in 1947, resulting in Pakistan gaining control over a portion, leading to ongoing tensions. In 1949, the Karachi Agreement established a cease-fire line overseen by UN military observers and recommended a referendum in the territory, though one never materialized. 
  • India Pakistan Wars and Agreements: Subsequent conflicts in 1965 and 1971 led to UN interventions and agreements like the Tashkent Agreement and the Shimla Agreement. India secured the Siachen glacier area in 1984 (Operation Meghdoot).
  • Terrorism and Nuclear Tests: Pakistan’s support for insurgency in Kashmir, successful nuclear tests in 1998, and the Kargil War in 1999 marked this period. The attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 intensified hostilities.

• India Pakistan Relations: Pacification Phase (2001-2008)

• • Peace Efforts: Despite setbacks, initiatives like the Lahore Declaration and Vajpayee’s principles aimed at improving relations.
  • Composite Dialogue Process: Started in 2004, including agreements on trade and gas pipelines, showed signs of progress.
  • Mumbai Attacks: However, the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008 strained relations.

• India Pakistan Relations: Phase of Passive Relations (2008 – 2015)

• • Low-Key Interactions: This phase saw minimal dialogue and efforts to establish trust, with discussions often stalling.
  • Neighborhood First Policy: India prioritized regional cooperation, leading to some positive gestures and visits.
  • Indian Prime Minister’s (PM) Visit to Pakistan: In 2015, Indian PM visit signaled a significant shift.

• India Pakistan Relations: Phase of Renewed Hostility (2015 – 2019)

• • Escalating Hostilities: Marked by attacks and tensions, aggravated by projects like the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
  • Series of Attacks: Terror attacks, including the Pulwama attack in 2019, triggered Indian Air Force’s Balakot airstrikes and diplomatic tensions.

Evolution Of India’s Pakistan Policy 

• Jawahar Lal Nehru: He didn’t consider Pakistan as foreign policy challenge and believed that Pakistan will automatically merge with India as its history, geography as well as destiny is linked with India.
• Indira Gandhi– She followed realist policy in India Pakistan war of 1971. However, she also suffered diplomatic defeat in Shimla Agreement by failing to solve Kashmir problem.
• Gujaral doctrine– His policy based on Panchsheel and non-reciprocity brought new freshness to India Pakistan Relations.
• Atal Bihari Vajpayee– He understood complexities and compulsion of relations well. To quote Vajpayee,’we can change history but not geography. We can choose our friends but not neighbours.’ However, India’s Pokhran test justified Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. His efforts such as Bus diplomacy and Lahore declaration also backfired in the form of Kargil war. Atal Bihari Vajpayee signed the ceasefire agreement of 2003 and the Islamabad Joint Statement of 2004, which together led to the resumption of the peace process and decline in violence in Jammu and Kashmir.
• Man Mohan Singh– M. M Singh’s Pakistan policy was based on Interdependence and functionalism. He focused on economic diplomacy to increase economic interdependence. India-Pakistan peacemaking made rapid gains in 2003-2007, under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf. Path-breaking CBMs, such as trade and travel between divided Kashmir, were implemented, yielding a draft framework agreement that could have provided a lasting solution to the Kashmir conflict.
• Narendra Modi– At the end of this period in 2014, the new government unveiled its ‘Neighborhood First’ Policy which accorded priority to the South Asian countries in its foreign policy. Prime Minister level visits between the two countries started and good will gestures were shown by both sides (fishermen released by Pakistan, Pakistan PM invited to PM Modi’s swearing-in ceremony etc.). Indian PM’s visit to Pakistan in 2015 was first in a decade and was therefore a significant change in India’s approach to Pakistan. China and Pakistan signed the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructural project in 2015 which was an affront to Indian sovereignty as the corridor passes through the PoK. Bilateral relations were dented by the series of attacks which started with Gurdaspur terror attacks in 2015 and included other major incidents like the Pathankot attack (2016), Nagrota attack (2016), Uri attack (2016), Amarnath yatra attack (2017) and finally the Pulwama attack in 2019. India responded to the Uri attack by carrying out a ‘surgical strike’ inside PoK and to the Pulwama attack by carrying out the Balakot airstrike in Pakistan and revoking the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan. Following the abrogation of Article 370 the diplomatic relations between the two countries have been downgraded. Pakistan launched a global diplomatic campaign to attract international support for Pakistan’s position on Kashmir.

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Current Situation in Pakistan: Political Turmoil, Security and Economic Crisis 

• Political Turmoil in Pakistan: Pakistan has been in a state of political upheaval since April 2022 when former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted through a vote of no confidence.
• Economic Crisis In Pakistan: Pakistan is grappling with a severe economic crisis, marked by soaring inflation, a depreciating currency, escalating public debt, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves. 
  • According to the World Bank, Pakistan’s total external debt stocks increased to $130.433 billion by end-2021 from $115.695 by end-2020. 
  • Despite efforts, the government has been unable to secure an IMF bailout due to its failure to implement necessary reforms, exacerbating the economic downturn.
• Security Concerns: Since the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Pakistani army has faced challenges from the Taliban-supported Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), expanding its presence in Balochistan and Punjab.
  • TTP has launched numerous attacks against Pakistani armed forces, leading to concerns about the army’s ability to contain the threat and maintain its previous stature.
• Social Unrest: Street protests following Khan’s removal have exposed the army’s political vulnerability, with protesters even reaching sensitive military installations.
• Resentment towards China: Rising resentment against Chinese investments, particularly in provinces crucial for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has strained Pakistan-China relations.
  • Out of Pakistan’s $27 billion in bilateral debt, around $23 billion is made up of Chinese loans.
• Regional Concerns: Worries arise over Pakistan descending into political turmoil, which could trigger regional instability due to its volatile borders with India, Iran, and Afghanistan. 

Implications For India 

• Terrorism Concerns: Pakistan harbors terrorist organizations targeting India, posing a direct threat to Indian interests. The Ministry of Commerce highlighted terrorism emanating from Pakistan as a core concern in bilateral relation. 
  • If this state collapses, then these terror organisations will increase their network which can directly hurt India’s interests. 
• Humanitarian Crisis and Refugee Influx: People in Pakistan struggle for basic necessities and livelihood. Contrasting conditions in India raise concerns of potential refugee influx from Pakistan.
• Impact on Trade: India’s exports to Pakistan at risk due to crisis. Bilateral trade totaled $514 million in 2021-2022, with Indian exports surpassing imports, as per Ministry of Commerce.
• Potential of Rising Chinese Influence: Deepening economic crisis in Pakistan may heighten Chinese influence. Potential implications for India-China relations, especially at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
• Nuclear Safety Concerns: Pakistan’s possession of nuclear weapons raises concerns beyond India. Economic crisis could further lead to army takeover, raising fears of proliferation of terrorist organizations for financial gain.

Way Forward To India Pakistan Relations

• India’s Neighbourhood First Policy: Emphasizes the importance of normal relations with neighboring countries, notably Pakistan. Prioritizes peaceful bilateral resolution, advocating elimination of terrorism and violence.
  • Calls for Pakistan to create a conducive environment for constructive dialogue.
• National Security Stance: India should continue to maintain resolute action against threats to security and territorial integrity.
• Religious Diplomacy: The future of India Pakistan relations requires a thoughtful engagement with the religious tradition. 
  • For instance, the Kartarpur Corridor was initiated in 2018, enabling Indian devotees’ access to Gurdwara Kartarpur Sahib in Pakistan.
• Turning Tragedy into Opportunity: Reports of protests in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) raise concerns about the potential for law-and-order issues and refugee influx. However, activists report protests in PoK with readiness to join India presents an opportunity to address regional instability and potentially expand its influence.
• Potential for Revival of SAARC: The deadlock in fostering greater cooperation among SAARC members is often attributed to the rivalry between Pakistan and India. However, with India’s increasing global prominence and Pakistan’s decline, SAARC’s revival becomes feasible.
  • The revival of SAARC can aid India’s neighbourhood policy in addressing the regional strategic encroachment posed by China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

• Diplomatic Opportunities For India

• • Insists on conditions for formal talks with Pakistan.
  • Requires genuine commitment to halting terrorism and resolving Kashmir issue.
  • Emphasizes the importance of concrete actions to address security concerns before engaging in substantive dialogue.

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