India’s Forest Carbon Storage Projections: Climate Change Impact and Policy Implications

A recent modelling study published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate suggests that India’s forests could nearly double their carbon storage capacity by 2100 under current greenhouse gas emission trends, offering new insights that differ from estimates by the Forest Survey of India (FSI).

• The findings, involving researchers from multiple Indian institutes, present a granular forecast of how climate change will reshape the country’s forest carbon stocks.

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Key Findings of Study

•  Projected Rise in Forest Carbon Stock: Vegetation carbon biomass in India is projected to increase significantly under different emission scenarios:
  • 35% under a low-emission pathway
  • 62% under a medium-emission pathway
  • 97% under a high-emission, fossil-fuel-intensive scenario by 2100
• All scenarios show similar growth trends until around 2030, after which they diverge sharply, with the most rapid increase occurring post-2050.
• Drivers of Increased Carbon Storage: The projected increase in forest carbon is primarily driven by two key factors:
  • Increased Rainfall: Rising precipitation levels enhance soil moisture availability, which supports higher vegetation growth and biomass accumulation.
  • Elevated Atmospheric CO₂: Higher CO₂ concentrations improve photosynthesis efficiency and water-use efficiency, leading to increased plant growth.
  • Time Lag Effect: Forest ecosystems do not respond immediately to climatic changes:
    • Approximately 2-year lag under low and medium emission scenarios
    • Approximately 4-year lag under high emission scenarios
• Regional Variations in Carbon Increase: The increase in vegetation carbon is spatially uneven across India:
  • Highest Relative Increase
    • Observed in arid and semi-arid regions such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, and western Madhya Pradesh
    • These areas may witness over 60% increase in vegetation carbon.
  • Moderate Increase: Expected in regions like:
    • Trans-Himalayas
    • Gangetic plains
    • Deccan Plateau
  • Lower Relative Increase: Seen in ecologically saturated and biodiversity-rich regions such as:
    • Western Ghats
    • Himalayan forests
  • Limited growth due to ecological constraints and climatic pressures.
• Divergence from Official Estimates: There is a notable difference between model-based projections and observational data:
  • Forest Survey of India (FSI) Estimates
    • Carbon stock increased from 6.94 billion tonnes (2013) to 7.29 billion tonnes (2023)
    • Projected to reach 8.65 billion tonnes by 2030 based on field data and remote sensing.
  • Study-Based Projections
    • Suggest significantly higher long-term increases in carbon storage
    • Highlight methodological differences, as the study uses predictive modelling while FSI relies on observed data.

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Concerns/Limitations of the Study

• Not a Positive Signal of Climate Change: An increase in forest carbon stock does not necessarily indicate improved ecological health.It may conceal underlying issues such as:
  • Forest degradation
  • Loss of biodiversity
• Missing Factors in the Model: The study’s model does not incorporate several critical real-world variables, including:
  • Deforestation and land-use change
  • Forest fires and extreme disturbances
  • Pest and disease outbreaks
  • Soil nutrient limitations

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Policy Relevance for India

• Climate Commitments: India’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) set a clear target to enhance forest carbon sinks.
  • The country aims to create an additional 3.5–4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent carbon sink by 2035.
• Forests and Bioeconomy: Forests play a crucial role in:
  • Carbon sequestration, helping mitigate climate change
  • Supporting livelihoods of forest-dependent communities
  • Promoting a sustainable bioeconomy through forest-based resources
• Need for Region-Specific Planning: A one-size-fits-all approach is ineffective due to regional variations in climate and ecology. Forest policies should be:
  • Climate-sensitive, considering future climate risks
  • Region-specific, tailored to local ecological conditions and needs

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