World Economic Outlook 2025

IMF has released the WEO (World Economic Outlook) report 2025.

Key Highlight of the Report

• Global Growth Report: 
  • Global Growth (2025): Upgraded to 3.2% from 3.0% (July forecast) and 2.8% (April).
  • Global Growth (2026): Unchanged at 3.1%, showing continued global recovery.
  • Emerging Market Growth: Expected to moderate from 4.3% (2024) to 4.2% (2025) and 4.0% (2026).
  • The IMF noted that while some emerging markets—like India—show resilience, overall outlook remains fragile due to trade uncertainty.
• India Specific Report: 
  • 2025–26 Forecast: Revised upward to 6.6% in due to a strong first quarter, offsetting tariff impact.
  • 2026–27 Forecast: Lowered marginally to 6.2%, reflecting a potential moderation in domestic momentum.
  • Drivers of India’s Upward Revision
    • Robust Private Consumption: Q1 growth of 7.8% demonstrated strong consumer demand resilience.
    • Offsetting U.S. Tariffs: The higher U.S. effective tariff rate on Indian imports since July was outweighed by domestic economic momentum (carryover from strong Q1 growth).
    • Strong Domestic Factors: Investment push and stable macroeconomic fundamentals reinforced growth optimism.

Comparison with World Bank Forecast

• The IMF’s upgrade followed the World Bank’s revision a week earlier in its South Asia Development Update, which raised India’s FY 2025–26 forecast to 6.5% (from 6.3%) while trimming the next fiscal year to 6.3% due to tariff concerns.
• Both institutions highlight India’s consumption-led growth amid global trade headwinds.

World Economic Outlook (WEO)

• The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a flagship report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
• Frequency: Biannual — April and October (with interim updates in January and July).
• Scope: It provides analyses and projections of global macroeconomic developments — growth, inflation, balance of payments, fiscal trends — for advanced, emerging, and developing economies.
• Scope: Covers ~190+ member countries of IMF, with global, regional, and country-level projections. 

DOWNLOAD PDF