GS 3: Role of External State and Non-state Actors in creating challenges to Internal Security.
Context: The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025–26 indicates a decline in global terrorism-related deaths, creating an impression that terrorism is weakening.
However, experts argue that this decline masks the changing nature of terrorism, as terrorist groups are becoming more decentralized, technologically enabled, and geographically concentrated.
The challenge today is not merely the number of attacks, but the evolution of terrorism into new forms that are more difficult to detect and counter.
Global Trends in Terrorism
- According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2025–26, terrorism-related deaths declined by approximately 28% in 2025, with around 5,582 deaths recorded globally.
- The report also indicates that the security situation improved in nearly 81 countries, suggesting progress in counter-terrorism efforts.
- While these statistics appear encouraging, they represent only the quantitative decline in terrorism and do not fully capture the qualitative transformation of terrorist threats.
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The Complacency Trap
- A decline in terrorist incidents may create a false sense of security among governments and societies.
- Terrorism has not disappeared; rather, it has shifted geographically and operationally.
- Policymakers must avoid interpreting declining statistics as evidence that terrorism has been permanently defeated.
- Counter-terrorism strategies should evolve continuously to address emerging threats rather than relying solely on historical trends.
Regional Concentration of Terrorism
- Terrorism has become increasingly concentrated in fragile and conflict-prone regions instead of being evenly distributed across the world.
- Around 70% of global terrorism-related deaths are concentrated in only five countries:
- Pakistan
- Burkina Faso
- Nigeria
- Niger
- Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
- The Sahel region of Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for more than half of global terrorism fatalities.
- Weak governance, political instability, poverty, and ongoing armed conflicts have enabled terrorist organizations to flourish in these regions.
Changing Nature of Terrorism
From Organised Terrorism to Lone-Actor Attacks
- Traditional terrorism involved well-organised terrorist groups carrying out coordinated attacks with extensive planning.
- Modern terrorism increasingly involves lone actors who may not have formal links with terrorist organisations.
- These individuals become radicalised online and carry out attacks independently using simple and easily available weapons.
Examples of Low-Tech Weapons
- Knives
- Vehicles
- Locally manufactured firearms
- Improvised weapons
This transformation makes terrorist attacks less predictable and significantly more difficult for intelligence agencies to prevent.
Digital Radicalisation
- The internet has become a major platform for terrorist recruitment and ideological indoctrination.
- Online echo chambers repeatedly expose individuals to extremist narratives, reinforcing radical beliefs.
- Terrorist organisations increasingly utilise:
- Encrypted messaging platforms
- Social media
- Dark web networks
- The digital ecosystem enables extremist propaganda to spread rapidly across national borders, making radicalisation a global challenge.
Major Drivers of Modern Terrorism
Political Instability and State Collapse
- Approximately 99% of terrorism-related deaths occur in countries already affected by armed conflicts or civil wars.
- Weak state institutions create security vacuums that terrorist organisations exploit.
- Groups such as the Islamic State (IS) and JNIM (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin) often provide alternative governance and security in areas where governments have lost control.
Porous Borders
- Modern terrorism has become increasingly border-centric.
- Nearly 60% of terrorist attacks occur within 100 km of international borders.
- Weak border management enables terrorists to:
- Cross borders after attacks.
- Smuggle weapons, drugs, and financial resources.
- Establish cross-border logistical networks.
- Border regions with weak administrative control are particularly vulnerable to terrorist activities.
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Fragile Governance
- Weak administrative institutions reduce the state’s ability to maintain law and order.
- Poor governance often results in:
- Limited public services
- Low public trust
- High unemployment
- Social grievances
- Terrorist organisations exploit these conditions to recruit local populations.
Socio-Economic Marginalisation
- Poverty, unemployment, and lack of educational opportunities increase vulnerability to extremist ideologies.
- Extremist groups often exploit local grievances by promising security, identity, and economic support.
Major Terrorist Networks
- Current global terrorism is increasingly concentrated around a limited number of major organisations, including:
- Islamic State (IS)
- JNIM (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin)
- Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
- Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
- Al-Shabaab
- Intelligence agencies must continuously monitor these organisations while remaining alert to the emergence of new extremist networks.
Emerging Challenges
- Technology-Driven Terrorism: Artificial intelligence, encrypted communication, cryptocurrencies, and drones are expanding the operational capabilities of terrorist organisations.
- Geopolitical Conflicts: Ongoing conflicts in West Asia, Ukraine, and other unstable regions may create new opportunities for extremist groups.
- Mass Displacement: Refugee crises and forced migration may increase security vulnerabilities if extremist organisations exploit displaced populations.
- Fragmentation of Terrorist Groups: Large terrorist organisations are increasingly splitting into smaller, decentralised networks that are harder to monitor and disrupt.
Implications for India
- India is located in a strategically sensitive neighbourhood, sharing borders with regions affected by terrorism and political instability.
- Cross-border terrorism continues to remain one of India’s foremost national security challenges.
- Increasing online radicalisation poses new challenges for domestic security agencies.
- India’s counter-terrorism strategy must address both traditional cross-border threats and emerging digital threats.
- Strengthening intelligence cooperation with neighbouring countries remains critical for preventing transnational terrorism.
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Way Forward
- Strengthen Border Management: Integrated border management systems, advanced surveillance technologies, and improved coordination among security agencies should be implemented to reduce cross-border infiltration.
- Enhance Intelligence Coordination: Intelligence agencies should strengthen real-time information sharing, predictive analytics, and inter-agency cooperation to detect emerging threats at an early stage.
- Counter Digital Radicalisation: Governments should collaborate with technology companies to identify and remove extremist content while promoting credible counter-narratives online.
- Improve Governance in Vulnerable Regions: Strengthening local governance, judicial institutions, policing, and public service delivery can reduce the conditions that allow extremist organisations to thrive.
- Address Socio-Economic Grievances: Investments in education, employment generation, skill development, and community engagement can reduce the appeal of extremist ideologies.
- Strengthen International Cooperation: Countries should deepen cooperation through mechanisms such as the United Nations, Financial Action Task Force (FATF), and bilateral intelligence-sharing arrangements to combat terrorism financing and cross-border networks.
11 Jul 2026
