After Maldives, India Out Campaign in Bangladesh

Context

Recently, there has been a rise in anti-India sentiments, seen in the emergence of the “India Out campaign” advocating the boycott of Indian products.

India’s Role in Freedom of Bangladesh

• India’s role in Freedom of Bangladesh: Bangladesh has always credited India for its independence and existence.
  • In the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, India countered Pakistan, China, America, and Europe to free Bangladesh from Pakistan’s oppressed regime.
• Recognizing Bangladesh’s Independence: India was the first country to accept Bangladesh as a sovereign nation.

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India’s Support for Bangladesh’s Sovereignty

• Dependence on India: Bangladesh still depends on India for its sovereignty.
  • For instance, India protected Bangladesh’s sovereignty by being the first to congratulate Sheikh Hasina’s government, providing legitimacy to the election.
• Sanctioning of Bangladesh Officials by Western Nations: In recent Bangladesh elections, America and Western countries openly opposed and even sanctioned Bangladeshi officials
• Boycott of Opposition in Elections of Bangladesh: The opposition party, supported by America, boycotted the election, resulting in only a 40% voter turnout.
• Apprehension of Bangladesh: Bangladesh’s government feared that Western countries would reject the results.
• Aftermath of India’s Support: Western countries were forced to accept the election results due to India’s support.

Factors Behind the “India Out Campaign”

• Ploy to Gain Power: Opposition parties want to create negative sentiment against India to regain power, like in Maldives. 
  • They believe that to remove the Hasina government, India’s dominance in Bangladesh must be reduced and thus they adopted the “India Out campaign” from Maldives. 
• Historic Opposition: The main opposition party, BNP, has historically opposed India since its formation by military dictator Ziaur Rahman in 1975.
• Negative Image and Publicity: Negative image of India among Bangladeshis due to India’s CAA laws and sentiments against Bangladeshi migrants in Assam.
• Bilateral Disagreements: Economic factors, such as the one-sided trade between India and Bangladesh, causing a trade deficit for Bangladesh, and the ongoing Teesta River issue.
• Chinese Influence: China’s alleged conspiracy behind the campaign to reduce India’s dominance in Bangladesh and increase its own influence in South Asia.

India’s Perspective on the India Out Campaign

• Rejecting Claims: The Indian foreign minister rejected the campaign, stating that India does not need to fear China’s growing influence.
• Propaganda driven by foreign entities: The India out campaign was primarily driven by foreign entities and only visible online, lacking wide participation from Bangladeshis.
• Baseless Accusations: The accusation of political interference against India is baseless, as other countries like China and Russia also supported the election results.
• Economic Impact of Boycotting India: Boycotting India would harm Bangladesh more, as its textile sector, which contributes 9% to its GDP and employs 70% of Bangladeshi women, depends on Indian cotton exports and garment imports.
• Loss of Tariff Concessions: Bangladesh will graduate from the least developed country list by 2026, losing tariff concessions, making it difficult to reduce trade with India.
• High Inflation in Bangladesh: India exports essential goods to Bangladesh, and stopping exports could cause 35% inflation in Bangladesh.
• Exporting Electricity to Bangladesh: India exports 1160 MW of electricity to Bangladesh, ensuring its energy security.

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Importance of India Bangladesh Relations

• Security reason: India cannot ignore the campaign as Bangladesh is crucial for India’s security.
• Connectivity issue: India depends on the Chicken’s Neck corridor for connectivity to its northeastern region, requiring good relations with Bangladesh.
• North- East Security: The ongoing unrest in Manipur is partly due to assistance provided to Kuki militants from Bangladesh.
• Challenge in Countering China: India is already facing problems countering China’s heavy financial and strategic presence in South Asia.
• • India cannot allow Bangladesh to become the next Maldives.

China’s Role and Regional Implications

• Chinese Campaign Against India: The campaign is seen as part of China’s efforts to reduce India’s influence in South Asia and increase its own.
• Inroads by China: China has already made inroads in Sri Lanka and Maldives, putting pressure on India.
• Benefits of India’s presence:  American report suggests that South Asian countries benefit from India’s presence, as evident in Sri Lanka, where India provided the most help during the China-induced crisis .
  • South Asian countries can effectively handle China only if India’s presence remains strong in their countrie.

Way Forward

• Engaging in Proactive Diplomacy: India should engage in proactive diplomacy with Bangladesh to address the concerns raised by the opposition parties and the public.
• Balancing Trade and Bilateral Ties: Efforts should be made to balance trade relations and resolve outstanding issues like the Teesta River dispute.
• Continued Support for Development: India should continue to support Bangladesh’s development and sovereignty while being mindful of its internal political dynamics.

Conclusion

To preserve the long-term viability of the India-Bangladesh alliance, both governments must prioritise fostering confidence and collaboration through diplomatic initiatives and direct interaction with people.