The ‘Great Abandonment’ of Afghanistan

Recently, India has reopened a technical mission in Kabul, balancing engagement with the Taliban and strategic concerns.

U.S. Actions and Their Impact on Afghanistan

• U.S. Betrayal: The U.S.‘s shifting stance under Donald Trump and Joe Biden has echoed loudly among Afghan exiles. 
  • The cutting of funding and the abandonment of Afghanistan left the country to be ruled by the Taliban, akin to the U.S.’s diplomatic disengagement with Ukraine.
• Historical Reflection: In 2017, Trump shook hands with Ashraf Ghani, striking a deal to give U.S. companies access to Afghanistan’s rare earth mineral deposits.
• Direct Talks : By July 2018, the U.S. began direct talks with the Taliban, sidelining the Afghan government. 
  • The Doha Accords (February 2020) legitimized the Taliban and accepted their narrative, weakening the Afghan government’s position.

Present Situation under Taliban 2.0

• Cost of Compromise: The Doha Accords led to Taliban 2.0 (2021-present), which has a firmer grip on Afghanistan and has been increasingly brutal towards women.
• Regressive Measures: The Taliban has imposed severe restrictions on women’s rights — banning girls’ education, employment, and even their public visibility, reversing progress made over two decades.
  • The contrast with the 2001-2021 period, where Afghanistan had women candidates for president and women working in many fields, highlights the regressive turn under Taliban rule.
• Shifting Alignments: U.S. and Europe have distanced themselves from Afghanistan, while Russia, China, and neighboring Pakistan have embraced the Taliban regime, allowing Taliban flags to fly at embassies of the former Republic.
• India’s Position: India has avoided accepting a Taliban-appointed Ambassador but reopened a technical mission in Kabul in 2022.
  • There is speculation that India is negotiating to expand its presence in Kabul while also allowing a Taliban-appointed Ambassador in New Delhi.
• Interests of India: India’s primary interests include humanitarian aid, the revival of development projects, and engagement with Taliban ministers.

India’s Engagement with the Taliban

• Taliban’s Power: The Taliban is seen as a long-term reality, and India needs to engage with the regime for practical reasons.
• Internal Divisions: Reports indicate that there is tension within the Taliban between Haqqani factions and Kandahari clerics, particularly over the issue of girls’ education, showing potential weaknesses in the regime.
• Economic Strain: Taliban mismanagement, coupled with the withdrawal of foreign aid (especially USAID), has worsened economic conditions, leading to increased refugee flows and tensions with Pakistan over the Durand Line.
• Strategic Space: India’s hesitation to fully re-engage stems from the risky nature of partnering with a regime that has targeted Indian interests for decades. 
  • However, there are concerns about India losing strategic influence in Afghanistan by not reopening its embassy when other regional powers are doing so.
• Security Concerns: India’s security establishment has been wary of Afghan refugees, fearing they could be “terrorists”. 
  • This has led to reluctance in granting visas to those fleeing the Taliban regime, including those who helped India during the Ghani era.
• Legacy: The legacy of India’s support to the Northern Alliance (e.g., Ahmad Shah Massoud) continues to resonate in Afghan hearts. The rejection of Afghan refugees today is seen as a betrayal by those who once viewed India as a supportive ally.

Conclusion

As India recalibrates its approach, the balance between pragmatism and principle will be critical. While the Taliban‘s grip on Afghanistan is firm, India must navigate realpolitik and humanitarian concerns while maintaining regional stability and diplomatic influence.