2026 Southwest Monsoon: Rainfall Deficit, LPA, Causes, Impacts and IMD Report

Subject: GS 01: Geography

Context: Recently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that the 2026 Southwest Monsoon ended with 759.4 mm rainfall, which was 12.6% below the Long Period Average (LPA) of 868.6 mm. 

• The East and Northeast recorded their driest monsoon since 1901, highlighting growing concerns over regional rainfall variability.

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Key Highlights of the Report

• Overall Rainfall Deficit: India received 759.4 mm rainfall, equivalent to around 87.4% of LPA, making the 2026 monsoon the lowest since 2015.
• Subdivisional Distribution: Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 experienced deficient rainfall, covering around 42% of India’s land area, while 18 recorded normal and one recorded excess rainfall.
• District-Level Deficiency: Of 741 assessed districts, 282 recorded deficient rainfall, including 34 large-deficient districts, indicating considerable spatial variation beneath the national average.
• Forecast Performance: IMD’s seasonal forecast had anticipated a subdued monsoon, with its April forecast at around 92% of LPA ±5% and May revision at 90% of LPA ±4%. The actual rainfall of around 87.4% of LPA broadly remained within the forecast range.

Why was the Monsoon Deficient? 

• El Niño: The 2026 monsoon occurred alongside a strengthening El Niño, which generally increases the probability of below-normal rainfall over India by affecting large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation.
• Indian Ocean Dipole: The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) represents differences in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean and can modify the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)  on the Indian monsoon.
• Madden-Julian Oscillation: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward-moving tropical atmospheric disturbance that contributes to active and break phases of the monsoon, influencing intra-seasonal rainfall variability.
• Monsoon Circulation: Changes in the strength and position of monsoon winds, low-pressure systems and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) can produce substantial regional differences in rainfall.
• Climate Change: Long-term climate change can influence the intensity, timing and spatial distribution of precipitation, although the 2026 seasonal deficit cannot be attributed solely to climate change.

Impact of Monsoon Deficit

• Regional Drying Trend: The IMD has highlighted a marked diminishing trend in rainfall over East and Northeast India in recent years, raising concerns for agriculture, ecosystems and water availability.
• Agricultural Stress: Deficient rainfall during critical periods can affect Kharif sowing, crop establishment and soil moisture, particularly in rain-fed regions.
• Rabi Implications: Lower rainfall and reservoir inflows during the monsoon can reduce water availability for Rabi irrigation, creating a carry-over impact beyond the monsoon season.
• Water Security: Reduced rainfall can constrain reservoir storage and groundwater recharge, increasing pressure on irrigation and drinking-water resources.
• Food Inflation: A decline in rainfall-sensitive agricultural production can create supply-side pressures on food prices, particularly for crops dependent on adequate monsoon moisture.
• Drought–Flood Paradox: A deficient seasonal rainfall total can coexist with short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events, resulting in drought-like conditions in some areas and flooding or urban waterlogging in others.
• Forecasting Challenge: Although the IMD broadly captured the national seasonal trend, monthly and regional forecasts, particularly for June and some parts of Northwest and Central India, showed greater deviations from actual conditions.

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Government Measures for Monsoon Resilience

• Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY): PMKSY, particularly the Per Drop More Crop component, promotes micro-irrigation and improved water-use efficiency to reduce agricultural dependence on uncertain rainfall.

• Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): PMFBY provides crop insurance against specified risks, including losses associated with adverse weather conditions, thereby providing financial protection to farmers.
• Contingency Crop Planning: District-level agricultural contingency plans help farmers and administrations respond to delayed monsoon, prolonged dry spells and deficient rainfall through crop and input adjustments.
• National Rainfed Area Authority (NRAA): The NRAA supports planning for rain-fed areas through approaches involving watershed development, sustainable agriculture and climate-resilient land management.
• Water Conservation Measures: Government programmes supporting rainwater harvesting, watershed development, groundwater recharge and micro-irrigation contribute to building resilience against rainfall variability.
• Weather-Based Advisories: IMD and agricultural institutions provide agrometeorological advisories to support decisions relating to sowing, irrigation, crop protection and harvesting.

Key Challenges in Monsoon Management

• Increasing Rainfall Variability: Greater variability in the timing, intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall complicates agricultural and water-resource planning.
• Regional Imbalance: Persistent rainfall deficits in some regions alongside intense rainfall in others make national-level rainfall averages insufficient for local planning.
• Rain-Fed Agriculture Dependence: A significant section of Indian agriculture remains dependent on rainfall, increasing vulnerability to dry spells and monsoon failure.
• Complex Climate Interactions: The combined influence of ENSO, IOD, MJO and regional atmospheric systems makes precise intra-seasonal and regional forecasting difficult.
• Drought–Flood Management: Disaster-management systems increasingly need to address drought conditions and extreme rainfall events within the same monsoon season.
• Water Resource Pressure: Deficient rainfall can intensify existing challenges related to groundwater depletion, reservoir management and competing demands for water.

Way Forward

• Strengthen Local Forecasting: Improve district- and block-level forecasting and translate weather information into timely, location-specific advisories.
• Promote Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Expand drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, micro-irrigation and contingency crop planning, particularly in rain-fed areas.
• Improve Water Security: Strengthen rainwater harvesting, watershed development, groundwater recharge and aquifer-based management.
• Integrated Reservoir Management: Combine real-time rainfall, reservoir and hydrological information for adaptive water allocation and reservoir operations.
• Strengthen Risk Protection: Improve the coverage, implementation and timely settlement of crop insurance and other agricultural risk-management mechanisms.
• Advance Monsoon Research: Strengthen research on the combined influence of ENSO, IOD, MJO and changing monsoon circulation to improve seasonal as well as intra-seasonal forecasts.
• Region-Specific Planning: Regions showing persistent changes in rainfall patterns, particularly East and Northeast India, require tailored strategies for agriculture, water management and ecosystem conservation.

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Conclusion

The 2026 Southwest Monsoon shows that monsoon performance depends not only on seasonal rainfall totals, but also on regional distribution and intra-seasonal variability. Strengthening forecasting, climate-resilient agriculture, water management and region-specific planning is essential for monsoon resilience. 

News Source: The Hindu

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