UN Climate Summit 2023 or COP28: Outcomes, Agreements and Challenges

Context: This article is based on the news “The CoP-28 deal left a major question out: Who will pay and for what?” which was published in the Live Mint. The UN Climate Summit 2023 or 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded recently.

UN Climate Summit 2023

• UN Climate Summit 2023 or COP28 is the 28th annual United Nations (UN) climate meeting, which took place from November 30 to December 12, 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Learn more about COP28 Climate Summit In Dubai here.

UN Climate Summit 2023: Key Outcomes

• Global Stocktake (GST): The UN Climate summit 2023 or COP28 concluded with an agreement known as the GST advocating for a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
  • Pathway Towards Climate Actions: The GST is considered the key outcome of COP28 as countries can use it to develop stronger climate action plans by 2025.
• Declaration on Fossil Fuels: The draft of the GST directly mentions fossil fuels. 
  • It adopted the declaration on “transitioning away from fossil fuel” and the need to replace fossil fuels with clean energy.
  • This is the first time there has been a clear reference to the future of all fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) in a COP text. 
• Global Methane Pledge: The agreement talks about “accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030”.
• Global Goal on Adaptation: The work programme resulted in the identification of some common adaptation goals, important for the entire world.
• Tripling of Renewable Energy: It calls upon countries to contribute to tripling global installed capacity of renewable energy, and doubling of annual improvements in energy efficiency.
• UAE Consensus:  It encourages nations to expedite the reduction of unabated coal power usage.
  • A compromise was reached after India and China strongly opposed coal targeting exclusively.
• Phasing Out Inefficient Fossil Fuel Subsidies: It includes a commitment to “phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions.

• Achieve Net Zero by 2050: It targets global net zero by 2050 by tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
• Reduction of Emissions from Road Transport:  It is to be done through the development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero- and low-emission vehicles
  • The draft favored the growth of brown fuels, offering oil-rich nations a business window and providing developing nations some flexibility in their green transition.
• Pledges to Decarbonise the Global Economy: Pledges worth $85 million were made outside the main COP text to accelerate private and public sector action to decarbonize the global economy.

Challenges Remaining Unaddressed at UN Climate Summit 2023

• Transition Limited to Fossil Fuels: The use of “transition away” is limited to fossil fuels in the energy sector, whereas the large petrochemical companies focus on the liquids-to-chemicals pipeline. 
  • Ex-Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, which produced 11.5 million barrels of crude oil daily in 2022, expects that by 2030, 4 million barrels a day will be set aside for chemical production.
• Lack of Commitment to Phase Out all Fossil Fuels: It doesn’t address the demands of small island states, to “phase out” or “phase down” all fossil fuels.
  • The agreement merely urges governments to phase down coal and reduce the use and production of fossil fuels against a total phase-out of all fossil fuels.

• Specific reference to “Transition fuels” for the Energy Transition: Natural gas has been categorized as a ‘transitional fuel,’ a designation criticized by the Global South.
  • Natural gas emits around 70 percent of the carbon that refined petroleum does and 50 percent of what anthracite coal does.
• No Landmark Outcome on Climate Finance: No commitments were made to fund the transition to renewables for lower-income countries.
  • A meager share of funds promised by developed countries in previous COPs were transferred to developing countries.
  • A commitment to mobilize $100 billion a year between 2020 and 2025 was made in 2009.
• Voluntary Nature of L&D Fund: As per the draft, the contribution to the loss and damage fund (L&D Fund) is voluntary.
  • The beneficiaries and benefactors have also not been identified for LDF with the largest polluter-so-far, the US, committing only $17.5 million.
• Exclusive Focus on Phasing Down Unabated Coal: It heightens the risk of exacerbating the North-South global divide,
• Removal of Equity and Human Rights Principles: Rights of Vulnerable communities in developing countries have not been considered through a  just low-carbon transition. 
• Uniform Deadline for Net Zero: A global net zero by 2050 should not imply a net zero for all countries at that time.
  • Developed countries need to reach net zero much earlier (2035-2040) to provide some carbon space for developing countries.
  • Carbon space refers to the atmosphere’s capacity to hold carbon that will not result in temperatures increasing by 1.5 to 2 degrees C by the end of the century. 
• No Consensus on Global Carbon Market: Countries failed to adopt rules to set up a global carbon market GCM) at the UN Climate Summit 2023 or COP28;
  • GCM will allow the trading of carbon credits generated by reducing or removing greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere. 
  • Carbon removal projects can be nature-based, which uses forests, mangroves, and agricultural soil to capture and store carbon, or technology-based solutions such as deploying big machines to such carbon dioxide.
• Bilateral Measures to Reduce GHG: Countries also failed to adopt rules under Article 6.2 of Paris Agreement, which covers bilateral actions between countries to reduce or remove greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Though rules under Article 6.2 have not been approved yet, countries such as Switzerland, Japan, Singapore, and others, have already started inking deals.
• Increasing LNG Investments: Despite the International Energy Agency’s warning of a peak in fossil fuel demand, countries are increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
  • These investments pose the risk of carbon lock-in until mid-century and beyond.
• Excessive focus on CCUS: The draft supports GHG removal technologies like carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS).
  • A study by Oxford University’s Smith School of Enterprise and Environment warned that a high CCUS pathway to decarbonization to mitigate half of today’s emissions in the oil and gas industry will cost an additional $30 trillion by 2050, compared to a low CCUS pathway.
  • In addition to being expensive, CCUS has not been promising in lowering emissions. 
  • According to a 2019 study, a CCUS retrofit on a Texas coal plant only decreased carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions by 10.8% over a 20-year period. 

Challenges for India

• Methane Emission Reduction: The draft calls for substantially reducing global methane emissions by 2030.
  • This is particularly challenging in countries with large agricultural sectors like India, where addressing methane emissions is complex due to the impact on farmers’ livelihoods.
  • It reflects a broader dilemma for the Global South between immediate economic concerns and long-term environmental goals. 
• Economy-wide Emissions Reduction Targets:  As per the agreement, even developing nations should be encouraged to set “ambitious, economy-wide emissions reduction targets” covering all sectors and gases in the next round of targets next year.
  • This marks a departure from the previous focus solely on carbon dioxide and the energy sector.
• Net Zero: The decision will prove challenging for India to comply with its developmental needs.

Way Forward

• New Climate Finance Goal: At COP29, governments must establish a new climate finance goal, considering the rights of the Global South based on the principles of Equity and Justice. 
  • Climate action must be based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC) considering different national circumstances.
• Focus on Nuclear Energy: Inclusion of nuclear power development as part of the carbon mitigation strategy with as much emphasis as it has placed on renewable energy. . 
  • Despite advancements in power storage technologies, there are concerns about the viability of predominantly relying on renewable energy for power supply.
  • Such a renewables plus nuclear strategy will require a very different mix of public and private investment than the present emphasis on renewables. 
• Making Historical Polluters Accountable:  They must fulfill their historic responsibility of reducing emissions earlier than developing nations and provide the developing countries with the necessary technologies for energy transition.
• India can take the lead in protecting the rights of the Global South just like it led the negotiations against unilateral trade measure CBAM by the EU.
  • Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by the European Union(EU) is a discriminatory, unilateral strategy that taxes the entry of steel and other comparable products rather than preventing it. 
• Reduction in Agriculture Emission: Replacing half the animal products we eat with plant-based alternatives may reduce agricultural and land-use greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 31 per cent by 2050, and halt the degradation of forest and natural land. 
• Promoting alternative proteins (plant-based food and cultivated meats) improving food security and cutting agrifood emissions.
  • A more sustainable agricultural model can be achieved by encouraging farmers to shift from methane-intensive crops to traditional varieties.
• Addressing Fossil Fuel Emissions from Other Sectors: Fossil fuel emissions from other polluting industries like plastics, fertilizers,etc need to be addressed.

Conclusion:

UN Climate Summit 2023 or COP28 achieved some climate breakthroughs, yet gaps in funding and a lack of full commitment to phasing out fossil fuels underscore the ongoing need for global unity and equitable solutions in the fight against climate change.