End of Assad Regime in Syria and India Syria Relations

Recently, Syrian rebels toppled President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year regime, leading to his asylum in Russia.

Background of the Syrian Civil War

• 1971: The Assad family has ruled Syria since 1971, with Hafez al-Assad establishing a dictatorial regime.
• 2000: Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father and was initially seen as a reformist due to his liberal image and policies.
• 2011: The Arab Spring in 2011 triggered widespread protests against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, citing economic inequality, unemployment, and the concentration of power and resources in the hands of the minority Alawite community.
  • Armed rebellion gains support from Western and Arab nations and Turkey.
• 2012: Al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Nusra Front, conducts its first bombing in Damascus.
  • Geneva talks between world powers on political transition fail due to divisions.
• 2013: Lebanon’s Hezbollah aids Assad in recapturing Qusayr, marking the growing role of Iran-backed groups.
  • A chemical attack in eastern Ghouta kills civilians but does not prompt U.S. military intervention.
• 2014: Islamic State (IS) seizes Raqqa and vast territories in Syria and Iraq.
  • The U.S. launches airstrikes against IS, supporting Kurdish forces but straining ties with Turkey.
• 2015: Russia enters the war, providing air support that shifts momentum in favor of Assad.
• 2016: Turkey launches an incursion to counter Kurdish advances, creating a zone of Turkish control.
  • Nusra Front rebrands as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), distancing itself from al-Qaeda.
• 2017: Israel acknowledges airstrikes in Syria targeting Hezbollah and Iranian forces.
• 2020: A ceasefire freezes most frontlines, leaving Assad in control of most territory and major cities.
• 2023: The October 7 Hamas attack on Israel diverts Hezbollah’s focus, weakening Assad’s support base.
• 2024: Rebels launch a decisive assault on Aleppo and quickly capture major cities, including Damascus.
  • Assad’s regime collapses as his army fails to resist due to lack of support from allies.

Key Players in the Conflict

• Internal Groups:
  • Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS):
    • Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is believed to be an offshoot of the terrorist group Al-Qaeda.
  • Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF):
    • SDF is a Kurdish-led coalition of U.S.-backed ethnic militias and rebel groups. 
  • Turkey-backed Syrian National Army(SNA):
    • Syrian National Army (SNA) is a Turkish-backed force.
• External Players:
  • Pro-Assad:
    • Russia: Provided air and strategic support since 2015.
    • Iran and Hezbollah: Syria is part of Iran’s “axis of resistance,” with Hezbollah playing a central role in opposing Israel and reducing U.S. influence in the region.

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• • Anti-Assad:
    • USA: Supported Kurdish-led forces and moderate rebels to counter ISIS and Assad’s regime. 
    • Turkey: Supported rebel groups to counter Kurdish autonomy near its border.
    • Israel: Targeted Iranian and Hezbollah positions in Syria.

Reason of fall of Assad’s Regime

• Prolonged Civil War and Loss of Legitimacy: The ongoing civil war since 2011 eroded Assad’s domestic legitimacy. 
  • Widespread discontent over authoritarian rule, corruption, and human rights abuses fueled rebellion and undermined his support among the Syrian populace.
• Advances by Rebel Forces: The resurgence of opposition forces, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with support from regional players like Turkey, enabled rapid military gains. 
• International Pressure and Isolation: Assad’s regime faced sustained international condemnation, sanctions, and isolation due to alleged war crimes and atrocities. 
  • Limited diplomatic avenues further weakened the regime’s position.
• Shifts in Geopolitical Dynamics
  • Russia: Preoccupied with Ukraine war; reduced troop presence in Syria.
  • Iran: Weakened by the death of General Qassem Soleimani and Israeli airstrikes targeting its positions in Syria.
  • Hezbollah: Distracted by direct conflict with Israel, unable to offer significant support.
  • Turkey: Allegedly backing HTS and SNA rebels in the offensive.

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India-Syria Bilateral Relations 

Historic and Civilizational Ties

• India and Syria share a long history of friendly relations rooted in historic and civilizational ties.
• Both nations have similar secular, nationalist, and developmental orientations.
• India’s consistent support for Arab causes, particularly the Palestinian issue and the return of the Golan Heights to Syria, is appreciated by Syrians.
• Indian leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, Rabindranath Tagore, and Jawaharlal Nehru are highly respected in Syria.

India’s Stand on the Syrian Crisis

• India has maintained its principled position of resolving the Syrian conflict through non-military means via a Syrian-led political process.
• India has consistently emphasized adherence to UNSC Resolution 2254, upholding Syria’s sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity.
• India has supported the UN Special Envoy’s “step-by-step” approach to foster trust among all stakeholders in Syria.
• On November 29, 2024, India held the 6th Round of Foreign Office Consultations with Syria, emphasizing bilateral cooperation.
• Following the collapse of Assad’s regime, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) issued a travel advisory urging Indian nationals to leave Syria.

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Bilateral Visits

• 2003: PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited Syria; agreements signed in diverse fields; India offered a US$ 1 million grant and a US$ 25 million LoC.
• 2008: President Bashar Al-Assad visited India; agreements included an IT Center and a feasibility study on Syrian phosphates.
• 2010: President Pratibha Patil visited Syria; LoC of US$ 100 million announced and contributions made to NGOs.
• 2012: PM Manmohan Singh met Syrian PM Wael Al Halki at the NAM summit and emphasized a political resolution to the conflict.
• 2016: Syrian Deputy PM and MoFA visited India to discuss counterterrorism and cooperation.
• 2022: Syrian Foreign Minister visited India; discussions on developmental support, capacity building, and economic collaboration.
• 2023: Minister of State (MoS) for External Affairs visited Syria, marking the first ministerial visit since 2016; emphasized strengthening ties in education, health, and capacity building.

Areas of Cooperation

• Humanitarian Assistance and Development Cooperation 
  • At Brussels conferences on Syria, India pledged USD 2.5 million in 2013, USD 2.5 million in 2014, USD 2 million in 2015 for developmental assistance.
  • In 2021, India gifted 2,000 MT of rice to Syria during a food crisis.
  • Under the “India for Humanity” initiative, artificial limb fitment camps in 2019-2022 benefited hundreds of Syrians.
• Capacity Building Initiatives: 
• • India offered scholarships to 1,500 Syrian students for UG, PG, and Ph.D. programs under the “Study in India” program.
  • Under ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Programme), 90 training slots are offered annually, and tailor-made training programs were conducted for Syrian officials in Arabic.
• Economic and Commercial Engagement
• • India extended a US$ 240 million LoC in 2009 for the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant, executed by BHEL.
  • Bilateral trade in 2023-24 amounted to USD 81.53 million (63 million export and 18 million imports from India), with major Indian exports including cereals and pharmaceuticals and imports including almonds and olive oil.
• Cultural Exchange and People-to-People Ties
• • Cultural ties include the adaptation of “Panchatantra” into Arabic ‘Kalila wa Dimna’ and the influence of Indian leaders and films.
  • The Cultural Exchange Programme, in effect since 1975, provides a framework for bilateral cooperation.
  • The Indian diaspora in Syria has significantly declined due to the civil war, with approximately 92 Indians residing there, mainly skilled workers and UN employees.

Key impacts of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria on India

• Rise of Extremism and Terrorism: The fall of the Assad regime creates a power vacuum likely to be exploited by extremist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and remnants of ISIS. 
  • This resurgence of radical ideologies could lead to increased recruitment and radicalization efforts, including targeting Indian Muslim youth.
• Threat to Energy and Diaspora Security: West Asia is crucial for India’s energy imports and home to millions of Indian expatriates. 
  • Instability in Syria could jeopardize regional security, affecting energy supply chains and the safety of the Indian diaspora.
• Geopolitical Setback in West Asia: The collapse of Assad weakens the “Shia Crescent” led by Iran, disrupting the balance of power in the region. 
  • This may lead to heightened activity by rival powers like Turkey and Pakistan, potentially undermining India’s interests in West Asia.
• Challenges to Counter-Terrorism Efforts: Syria becoming a haven for non-state actors and transnational criminal networks increases risks for India. 
  • These elements could collaborate with adversaries, including Pakistani intelligence, to undermine India’s national security.
• Disruption of Strategic Projects: The instability in Syria threatens India’s involvement in initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC). 
• Limited Diplomatic Options: India’s traditional support for a Syrian-led political resolution may face challenges. 

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Regional impacts of Assad’s fall

• Fracturing of the “Shia Crescent”: The fall of Assad disrupts the Iran-led “Shia Crescent,” which spans Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. 
  • This weakens Iran’s influence in the region, undermining its ability to support proxy groups like Hezbollah and threatening its supply routes for weapons and resources.
• Strengthening of Extremist Groups: Extremist groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and remnants of ISIS are likely to capitalize on the power vacuum, increasing instability. 
  • The emergence of radical Islamist regimes or militant strongholds could spill over into neighboring countries.
• Intensification of Turkish Influence: Turkey, which has supported Syrian opposition forces, may assert greater control in northern Syria. 
  • This includes bolstering its fight against Kurdish groups and maintaining influence over oil-rich regions. However, it may also face challenges from competing factions and regional rivals.
• Israeli Security Dilemma: While Assad’s fall weakens Iran’s foothold near Israel, it introduces new threats. 
  • The rise of jihadist forces near Israel’s borders could exacerbate security challenges, compelling Tel Aviv to increase its military operations in the region.
• Ripple Effects on Lebanon: The weakening of Hezbollah, a key Iranian proxy, due to the loss of Syrian logistical support, could destabilize Lebanon.
  •  This might exacerbate existing political and economic crises, leading to regional spillovers.
• Complications for Saudi Arabia and the GCC: Saudi Arabia and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states may see opportunities to curtail Iranian influence but will also be wary of empowering radical groups. 
  • Balancing these dynamics while managing regional stability will be challenging.
• Increased Rivalries Among External Powers: With Assad’s exit, external players like Russia, the U.S., and European powers will vie for influence in shaping Syria’s future. 

Importance of Syria for India

• Historical and Cultural Ties: India and Syria share ancient historical and cultural links, dating back to the Silk Road era. This common heritage fosters understanding and cooperation.
• Strategic Importance: Syria’s strategic location bridges India with the broader Middle East, Europe, and Africa, aligning with India’s global aspirations. 
  • Its stability and security have implications for regional balance of power, which indirectly affects India’s interests in the Middle East.
• Regional Security: Syria is critical for India’s counter-terrorism strategies and regional stability efforts in West Asia.
• Counterbalancing Influence: Syria’s support for India on issues like Kashmir helps counterbalance Pakistan’s influence in the Islamic world. 
• Economic Opportunities: Though limited due to the ongoing conflict, there are potential economic opportunities in Syria, particularly in reconstruction and development projects once stability returns.
• Energy Security: While not a major energy supplier, Syria’s location could potentially play a role in diversifying India’s energy sources and reducing reliance on traditional suppliers.
• Global Forum Participation: Both India and Syria are members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Cooperation within this forum allows for joint efforts on global issues and a platform for mutual support.

Way Forward

• Strengthen Diplomatic Engagements: India should engage with the new Syrian leadership and other regional powers to safeguard its interests in Syria.
• Expand Humanitarian Assistance: Continue providing humanitarian aid and capacity-building programs to support the Syrian people.
• Monitor Security and Counter-terrorism: Enhance cooperation with regional and global partners to address and counter terrorism threats in Syria and prevent their spillover effects into India.
• Leverage Economic Diplomacy: Utilize economic tools, such as lines of credit, to influence the rebuilding process in Syria and strengthen bilateral ties.
• Maintain a Balanced Foreign Policy: Engage with all relevant regional and international stakeholders to protect India’s interests amidst the shifting power dynamics in the region.

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Conclusion

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant geopolitical shift in the region, leading to increased instability and potential security challenges for India. It necessitates a nuanced and proactive foreign policy approach from New Delhi to protect its interests amidst the evolving power dynamics in West Asia.